Ontario is the key region to watch as household credit pressure grows unevenly
Mortgage stress remains contained across Canada, but regional pressure is building, according to CMHC’s Fall 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Report.
Based on observed data through the second quarter of 2026, CMHC expects mortgage delinquency rates to rise in Ontario, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada through mid-2027. Ontario is expected to record the largest increase.
This is a regional research forecast, not a change to mortgage rules or an indication that every borrower in those regions will fall behind.
What the latest observed figures show
The report generally treats a mortgage as being in arrears or delinquent when it is at least 90 days past due. Its latest observed period for most delinquency and borrower-stress measures is 2026 Q2.
Ontario’s mortgage arrears rate reached 0.32% in 2026 Q2, up from 0.21% in 2025 Q2. British Columbia’s rate reached 0.26%, up from 0.20% over the same period.
Alberta’s rate was 0.27% in 2026 Q2, compared with 0.26% one year earlier. CMHC nevertheless describes Alberta’s broader conditions as continuing to improve.
| Area and measure | 2025 Q2 | 2026 Q2 |
|---|---|---|
| Ontario provincial mortgage arrears rate | 0.21% | 0.32% |
| British Columbia provincial mortgage arrears rate | 0.20% | 0.26% |
| Alberta provincial mortgage arrears rate | 0.26% | 0.27% |
| Toronto Equifax-based mortgage delinquency rate | 0.24% | 0.33% |
| Vancouver Equifax-based mortgage delinquency rate | 0.17% | 0.24% |
The provincial arrears figures and metropolitan Equifax-based delinquency figures are different measures. They should not be directly interchanged or treated as if they describe identical borrower groups.
Where regional pressure is rising
CMHC identifies Ontario as the main region to watch. It says the province’s delinquency rate is approaching levels last seen around 2008.
Within Ontario, metropolitan-area increases between 2025 Q2 and 2026 Q2 were concentrated in:
- Toronto;
- London;
- Windsor;
- Oshawa;
- St. Catharines-Niagara;
- Hamilton; and
- Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo.
Vancouver and Victoria also recorded increases. By contrast, several Prairie metropolitan areas improved over the same period, including Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina.
CMHC associates the pressure in affected regions with weaker labour markets, rising unemployment and softer housing conditions. Softer conditions may make it more difficult for a stressed borrower to sell or refinance. CMHC also says Ontario has greater exposure to U.S. tariffs, adding to labour-market risk.
What CMHC expects through mid-2027
CMHC forecasts that mortgage delinquency rates will rise in Ontario, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada through mid-2027. Ontario is expected to have the largest increase.
The forecast is directional: the supplied report material does not give an exact mid-2027 delinquency rate for any of the three regions. Atlantic Canada is presented as one region, and the findings do not establish separate forecasts for individual Atlantic provinces.
The outlook also depends partly on broader economic conditions, including whether unemployment increases significantly. It therefore does not guarantee that delinquency rates will follow a particular path or determine what will happen to any individual homeowner’s mortgage payment or credit status.
Other signs of household strain
CMHC reports that delinquencies on auto loans, credit cards and lines of credit continued to rise nationally. It describes these as possible early signals of household financial strain.
Mortgage holders continued to have lower non-mortgage delinquency rates than consumers without mortgages. However, some measures of strain increased faster among mortgage holders.
Between 2025 Q2 and 2026 Q2, the share of mortgage holders with a recent bankruptcy increased by 25%. The comparable increase among consumers without a mortgage was 5%. These figures describe changes in the respective shares, not the percentage of all borrowers who entered bankruptcy.
CMHC says credit risk is building mainly in existing mortgage portfolios rather than through new mortgage originations. In 2026 Q2, consumers with credit scores below 600 held 1.74% of outstanding mortgage loan amounts, while 0.45% of new mortgage loan amounts went to consumers with scores below 600.
Mortgage investment entities have higher delinquency
Mortgage investment entities had the highest delinquency rate among the lender types listed in the report. Their rate was 2.57% in 2026 Q2, compared with 0.28% at chartered banks, 0.14% at credit unions and 0.27% at other non-bank lenders.
However, mortgage investment entities accounted for only 1.8% of total outstanding mortgage balances as of 2026 Q1.
In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, the share of mortgage investment entity balances at least 90 days in arrears rose from 3.0% in 2023 Q3 to 11.1% in 2026 Q1. These data distinguish the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area from the rest of Canada; they do not separately establish trends for British Columbia or Southwestern Ontario.
Do You Need to Do Anything?
No application, filing, payment or compliance action is required because of this report. It does not change mortgage qualification rules, insurance requirements, payment obligations, application requirements or borrower deadlines.
CMHC does not direct individual homeowners to take a specific action in the supplied material. The findings are an aggregate regional assessment and do not establish that a particular homeowner will become delinquent.
Bottom Line
CMHC’s observed data through 2026 Q2 show that mortgage pressure is rising most notably in Ontario and British Columbia, even as national stress remains contained and below historical peaks from the past 30 years.
Its forecast extends that regional concern through mid-2027, with higher delinquency expected in Ontario, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. Ontario is the key region to watch, but no exact forecast rates are provided and the outlook is not a prediction for any individual borrower.
Official Government Sources
- CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report
- CMHC podcast: Mortgage stress remains contained, regional pressures growing
- CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Data Dashboard
- CMHC housing finance research
This article provides general information based on official Canadian government sources. Government programs, amounts, eligibility rules and deadlines can change. Check the official sources linked above for information specific to your situation.