CMHC Expects More Mortgage Delinquency Pressure in Ontario Through Mid-2027

A regional mortgage outlook, not a change to mortgage rules

Mortgage stress remains contained nationally, but the pressure is not evenly distributed across Canada. In an assessment published October 27, 2026, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said mortgage delinquency has been rising in several regions and forecast further pressure in Ontario, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada through mid-2027.

Ontario is expected to record the largest regional increase, with Toronto identified as the city most exposed to further delinquency pressure. However, this is a conditional research outlook—not a new mortgage law, program or rule—and it does not mean that every borrower in an affected region will fall behind.

What the latest observed data show

CMHC’s mortgage arrears and delinquency data discussed in the report use a threshold of payments overdue by 90 days or more. Arrears have risen over the past few years in most regions, with Ontario and British Columbia accounting for much of the increase.

The latest period identified for several of the findings is the second quarter of 2026. Selected figures from that period include:

Ontario’s delinquency rates are approaching levels last seen around 2008. Within the province, pressure is especially apparent in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and Southwestern Ontario. The largest recent increases are concentrated in Ontario census metropolitan areas, while Vancouver is also under pressure.

These observed rates do not establish that Ontario has the highest absolute delinquency rate in Canada. They also do not predict whether any particular borrower will miss a payment.

Where CMHC forecasts further pressure

Looking ahead through mid-2027, CMHC expects mortgage delinquency rates to rise in:

• Ontario, which is forecast to record the largest regional increase;
• British Columbia, where upward pressure is expected to be more moderate than in Ontario; and
• Atlantic Canada, where CMHC also expects more moderate upward pressure.

Toronto is identified as the city most exposed to further delinquency pressure. Elsewhere, CMHC expects delinquency to remain broadly stable, while conditions in Alberta have improved.

The report does not quantify the forecast increase for each region. Its outlook is also conditional on economic circumstances, including employment, trade risks, economic growth and housing-market conditions. The forecast includes the assumption that there is no significant increase in unemployment.

Some 2021 mortgages may renew at higher payments

CMHC says interest rates have eased from the recent peak it identifies as June 2024 and that the largest mortgage-renewal shock has likely passed. Even so, some borrowers renewing 5-year mortgages taken out in 2021 may still face higher payments.

This finding is limited. It does not mean that everyone with a mortgage renewal in 2026 or through mid-2027 will pay more. The supplied report material also does not quantify how much an affected borrower’s payment could increase.

Other credit problems may provide an early warning

CMHC found that delinquencies on auto loans, credit cards and lines of credit have continued to rise. These problems may signal household financial stress before it appears in mortgage arrears, but they are not proof that a borrower will later default on a mortgage.

From the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, line-of-credit and credit-card delinquency rates rose proportionally faster among mortgage holders than among consumers without mortgages. The bankruptcy rate among mortgage holders has also risen steadily since 2022, with a more noticeable increase over the past year.

CMHC says credit risk is building in existing mortgage portfolios rather than through new mortgage originations. Since 2022, borrowers with credit scores below 600 have represented a growing share of outstanding mortgage balances, while their share of new mortgage lending has remained low and stable.

A credit score below 600 does not establish that an individual borrower will become delinquent. The report describes a shift in the composition of existing mortgage balances, not a guaranteed outcome for everyone in that credit-score category.

Stress differs by lender type

Delinquency rates at chartered banks and credit unions remained low and relatively stable over the past year. Mortgage investment entities showed the strongest lender-side stress.

In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, the delinquency rate for mortgage investment entities was more than three times the rate in the rest of Canada. However, these entities accounted for only 1.8% of total outstanding mortgage balances in the first quarter of 2026. Their elevated delinquency therefore does not, by itself, establish system-wide mortgage distress.

Do You Need to Do Anything?

CMHC’s report does not introduce a required borrower action, application, deadline or change to mortgage rules. It also does not prescribe a specific response for mortgage holders.

The findings may be particularly relevant to borrowers in Ontario—especially the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and Southwestern Ontario—as well as borrowers in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. They may also be relevant to some people renewing 5-year mortgages taken out in 2021 and to mortgage holders already experiencing difficulty with auto loans, credit cards or lines of credit.

Location, lender type, credit score and mortgage origination year alone do not determine whether a particular borrower will fall behind or face a higher renewal payment.

Bottom Line

CMHC’s Fall 2026 assessment points to growing regional mortgage pressure rather than broad national distress. Ontario is forecast to record the largest increase in delinquency through mid-2027, with Toronto the city most exposed to further pressure. British Columbia and Atlantic Canada are expected to see more moderate increases.

At the same time, national mortgage stress remains contained and delinquency rates remain below the historical peaks recorded over the past 30 years. The outlook is conditional, and the report does not predict a particular outcome for any individual mortgage holder.

Official Government Sources

• CMHC: Mortgage stress remains contained, but regional pressures are growing
• CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report
• CMHC Housing Observer

This article provides general information based on official Canadian government sources. Government programs, amounts, eligibility rules and deadlines can change. Check the official sources linked above for information specific to your situation.